Bitcoin traded 3.3% higher at $71,629.78 by 09:03 UTC today (Thursday), extending a two-day advance after gaining about 7% on Wednesday. The move carried BTC through the top of its June to August range near $67,000 and into the 200-day exponential moving average at $71,541.21.
A daily close above that average would activate $75,338.53 as the first resistance, followed by my main target at $82,614.16. The second level is about 15.3% above the chart’s reference price, while a rejection would put the broken $66,779.63 area back in play.
This is a material change from my July 20 Bitcoin forecast, when the $65,261 range floor had turned into resistance and the chart pointed toward $44,858. BTC has since reclaimed that floor, its 50-day EMA and the descending trend line that capped the summer consolidation.
Bitcoin Breaks the $67,000 Range Ceiling
My first daily chart shows why the move matters. Bitcoin spent most of June, July and the first half of August between approximately $58,000 and $67,000. The upper boundary overlapped with a descending trend line drawn from the October 2025 high.
Wednesday’s candle cleared both barriers. It was the strongest positive daily candle visible on the chart since March, while Thursday’s follow-through pushed price directly into the falling 200 EMA.
The break also confirms the first repair signal from my July review of the 50-month EMA. That bearish setup required BTC to remain below the $60,000 to $65,000 band on a monthly basis.
Price now trades well above that band. August still needs to close before the higher-timeframe reversal is confirmed.
Bitcoin breaks the June to August range and tests its 200 EMA. Source: TradingView
| Scenario | Confirmation | Next Levels | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Daily close above the 200 EMA, then $75,339 | $82,614, then $98,068 | Daily close back below $66,780 |
| Breakout failure | Rejection at the 200 EMA and loss of $66,780 | Return to the June to August range | Daily close above $75,339 |
How High Can Bitcoin Go Above the 200 EMA?
The nearest horizontal resistance is $75,338.53, around 5.2% above the $71,629.78 reference price. It comes from the local highs formed in March and must break before the larger target becomes active.
My main resistance zone is centered near $82,614.16. It combines the May peaks with the November and December 2025 lows, where former support can become supply. The target would require a gain of about 15.3% from Thursday’s chart price.
That area already stopped a recovery once. Bitcoin tested the 200 EMA near $82,000 in May, but the breakout failed and the average subsequently fell toward its current $71,541 position.
The optimistic extension is $98,068.26, the January 14 high and a level close to the June 2025 swing low. Reaching it would mean an advance of approximately 36.9%, not 35%, from the chart’s current reference price.
The same upper zone appeared in my May Bitcoin price forecast, which mapped $92,000 to $98,000 after a clean daily close above $82,000. The present setup approaches that sequence from a lower starting point, so $75,339 and $82,614 remain the gates.
BTC targets $75K, $82.6K and $98K if the 200 EMA breaks. Source: TradingView
Why Is Bitcoin Price Rising This Week?
The immediate macro driver came from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. It announced an increase in long-end liquidity-support buybacks for 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year securities.
Markets read the step as support for Treasury liquidity and lower long-term yields. The August quarterly refunding statement had already scheduled up to $38 billion in off-the-run purchases for liquidity support during the quarter.
Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, linked the announcement to Bitcoin’s move, saying it provided a more supportive backdrop for risk-taking and short-term crypto speculation.
“The liquidity impact is still meaningful,” Howard said in commentary sent to FinanceMagnates.com.
The distinction matters. These are Treasury debt-management operations executed through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York as fiscal agent, not monetary-policy purchases by the Federal Reserve.
TD Securities rates strategist Gennadiy Goldberg also told Axios that the action was not QE. He described the announcement as the equivalent of verbal intervention from the Treasury.
The move reversed one of the pressures identified by Bitfinex Alpha earlier in August. The report said the 30-year Treasury yield remained near a two-decade high and that high long-term rates were limiting Bitcoin’s upside even as spot exchange-traded fund demand returned.
What Would Invalidate the Bitcoin Breakout?
Trading above the 200 EMA during an open daily candle is not the same as closing above it. At 09:03 UTC, BTC was only about 0.1% over the line, leaving room for a same-day rejection.
The first warning would be a close back below $71,541. A deeper reversal below $66,779.63 would return price beneath the old range ceiling and weaken the bullish interpretation.
That would revive the consolidation risk described in my June weekly-break forecast, although the former $44,100 target is no longer the immediate base case while BTC holds above the reclaimed $65,000 to $67,000 area.
The earlier $38,000 bear-flag scenario also depended on a daily close below $59,000 to $60,000. Bitcoin moved in the opposite direction, and the chart now favors $75,339 followed by $82,614 as long as $66,780 holds on a closing basis.
Bitcoin traded 3.3% higher at $71,629.78 by 09:03 UTC today (Thursday), extending a two-day advance after gaining about 7% on Wednesday. The move carried BTC through the top of its June to August range near $67,000 and into the 200-day exponential moving average at $71,541.21.
A daily close above that average would activate $75,338.53 as the first resistance, followed by my main target at $82,614.16. The second level is about 15.3% above the chart’s reference price, while a rejection would put the broken $66,779.63 area back in play.
This is a material change from my July 20 Bitcoin forecast, when the $65,261 range floor had turned into resistance and the chart pointed toward $44,858. BTC has since reclaimed that floor, its 50-day EMA and the descending trend line that capped the summer consolidation.
Bitcoin Breaks the $67,000 Range Ceiling
My first daily chart shows why the move matters. Bitcoin spent most of June, July and the first half of August between approximately $58,000 and $67,000. The upper boundary overlapped with a descending trend line drawn from the October 2025 high.
Wednesday’s candle cleared both barriers. It was the strongest positive daily candle visible on the chart since March, while Thursday’s follow-through pushed price directly into the falling 200 EMA.
The break also confirms the first repair signal from my July review of the 50-month EMA. That bearish setup required BTC to remain below the $60,000 to $65,000 band on a monthly basis.
Price now trades well above that band. August still needs to close before the higher-timeframe reversal is confirmed.
Bitcoin breaks the June to August range and tests its 200 EMA. Source: TradingView
| Scenario | Confirmation | Next Levels | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Daily close above the 200 EMA, then $75,339 | $82,614, then $98,068 | Daily close back below $66,780 |
| Breakout failure | Rejection at the 200 EMA and loss of $66,780 | Return to the June to August range | Daily close above $75,339 |
How High Can Bitcoin Go Above the 200 EMA?
The nearest horizontal resistance is $75,338.53, around 5.2% above the $71,629.78 reference price. It comes from the local highs formed in March and must break before the larger target becomes active.
My main resistance zone is centered near $82,614.16. It combines the May peaks with the November and December 2025 lows, where former support can become supply. The target would require a gain of about 15.3% from Thursday’s chart price.
That area already stopped a recovery once. Bitcoin tested the 200 EMA near $82,000 in May, but the breakout failed and the average subsequently fell toward its current $71,541 position.
The optimistic extension is $98,068.26, the January 14 high and a level close to the June 2025 swing low. Reaching it would mean an advance of approximately 36.9%, not 35%, from the chart’s current reference price.
The same upper zone appeared in my May Bitcoin price forecast, which mapped $92,000 to $98,000 after a clean daily close above $82,000. The present setup approaches that sequence from a lower starting point, so $75,339 and $82,614 remain the gates.
BTC targets $75K, $82.6K and $98K if the 200 EMA breaks. Source: TradingView
Why Is Bitcoin Price Rising This Week?
The immediate macro driver came from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. It announced an increase in long-end liquidity-support buybacks for 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year securities.
Markets read the step as support for Treasury liquidity and lower long-term yields. The August quarterly refunding statement had already scheduled up to $38 billion in off-the-run purchases for liquidity support during the quarter.
Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, linked the announcement to Bitcoin’s move, saying it provided a more supportive backdrop for risk-taking and short-term crypto speculation.
“The liquidity impact is still meaningful,” Howard said in commentary sent to FinanceMagnates.com.
The distinction matters. These are Treasury debt-management operations executed through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York as fiscal agent, not monetary-policy purchases by the Federal Reserve.
TD Securities rates strategist Gennadiy Goldberg also told Axios that the action was not QE. He described the announcement as the equivalent of verbal intervention from the Treasury.
The move reversed one of the pressures identified by Bitfinex Alpha earlier in August. The report said the 30-year Treasury yield remained near a two-decade high and that high long-term rates were limiting Bitcoin’s upside even as spot exchange-traded fund demand returned.
What Would Invalidate the Bitcoin Breakout?
Trading above the 200 EMA during an open daily candle is not the same as closing above it. At 09:03 UTC, BTC was only about 0.1% over the line, leaving room for a same-day rejection.
The first warning would be a close back below $71,541. A deeper reversal below $66,779.63 would return price beneath the old range ceiling and weaken the bullish interpretation.
That would revive the consolidation risk described in my June weekly-break forecast, although the former $44,100 target is no longer the immediate base case while BTC holds above the reclaimed $65,000 to $67,000 area.
The earlier $38,000 bear-flag scenario also depended on a daily close below $59,000 to $60,000. Bitcoin moved in the opposite direction, and the chart now favors $75,339 followed by $82,614 as long as $66,780 holds on a closing basis.
