Prediction markets’ public ledgers may turn suspected insider trading into a signal that other traders and bots can copy, according to new research into activity on Polymarket International.
The nonprofit Anti-Corruption Data Collective said more than 150 wallets on the platform may have traded on inside US military information.
The research focused on whether traders may have had non-public information and whether their activity was visible enough to attract copycat bets.
ACDC analysed all settled Polymarket markets through May 5 and looked for “long-shot” bets. It defined those as wagers of at least $2,500 placed cumulatively within an hour on outcomes priced at 35% probability or lower.
ACDC Found 556 “Orca” Wallets
Within that set, ACDC identified 556 wallets it called “Orcas.” The group said these traders often opened accounts, quickly placed successful long-shot bets in niche markets where insiders may have an informational advantage, then in many cases cashed out and disappeared.
Of those wallets, 152 were especially successful in military and defence markets. They made $8 million collectively and had an average win rate of 97.2%, according to the research.
ACDC said the pattern may have other explanations, including luck. Moreover, and not every potential insider would fit the Orca profile.
Gannon Ken Van Dyke, the US soldier charged in April over alleged Polymarket trading tied to classified information, built his position more slowly and was not among the 152 military Orcas identified.
Orca trades attracted copycats. ACDC said some of them appeared to trigger bets from larger traders and automated bots.
In one example, an Orca bet on US military action in Iran hours before June 2025 strikes was followed by copycat wagers of $200,000 and $100,000 from a bot and a large trader.
ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi said unusual activity on Polymarket is more observable than many people assume because it is “all right there on the internet.”
Platforms Move Controls Upstream
Polymarket says its international platform settles trades on a blockchain, making wagers public while traders remain anonymous. The company claims it monitors suspicious activity and has referred dozens of trader wallets to authorities, including in the Maduro case.
Other prediction market operators have started adding controls earlier in the trading process. Kalshi recently said it would collect employment information from traders seeking access to certain contracts that may be vulnerable to insider information or manipulation.
The platform plans to use risk scoring to decide where additional controls are required. Kalshi has also extended Solidus Labs surveillance to its affiliated FCM, Kinetic Markets, and added Comply as an employee-trade monitoring integration for firms overseeing prediction market activity.
US authorities have already brought the first insider trading case tied to prediction markets. In April, prosecutors charged Van Dyke with allegedly using classified intelligence to place Polymarket bets linked to Venezuela, earning about $409,881, Finance Magnates reported.
ACDC is calling for mandatory identity verification for all traders and for payouts on suspicious trades to be withheld pending investigation.
The group also argues that markets where non-public information may be most actionable and profitable should be banned, saying law enforcement and trader-type restrictions alone would not be enough.
This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
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